Half of buyers are worried home prices could crash, while the other half are hoping they do.

A recent Clever survey found that 58% of Gen Z buyers are actually hoping for a housing crash because they feel it could make homeownership more affordable.

So, what are the experts actually forecasting?

Every quarter, Fannie Mae surveys more than 100 housing experts about where home prices are headed. The latest results are in, and the big takeaway is that even the more cautious experts aren’t predicting a housing crash.

What the Newest Numbers Actually Say

The latest forecast expects home prices to keep rising every year through at least 2030.

The panel’s average forecast calls for home prices to rise 14.7% over the next five years. And here’s the interesting part: even the more pessimistic experts still expect prices to increase about 6.6% by the end of 2030.

The takeaway? If you’re waiting for home prices to drop, you may be waiting longer than you think.

One thing to remember is that these are national numbers. Your local market could be moving a little faster or slower, so it’s important to know what’s happening in your area too. But the bigger picture is clear: home prices aren’t crashing, and history shows they tend to rise over time.

How This Quarter Compares to the Past

Here’s something you may not know. This survey is done four times a year, so you can see how the experts’ outlook changes over time.

A year ago, the panel expected home prices to rise 2.1% this year. Now, they’re forecasting 2.5%. So, the short term outlook has actually become a little more positive. And that’s not all. Their forecasts for the years ahead have changed too.

Looking ahead to 2027 through 2029, the outlook has cooled a little. The panel now expects slightly less growth in each of those years than they did a year ago. That likely reflects the many factors currently shaping the housing market.

The main takeaway is that every bar still shows home prices going up. The difference is that the expected growth has slowed because of the factors affecting the market right now.

A slower pace isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It shows the market is moving toward a more normal rhythm after several unusual years.

Growth may be a little higher one year and a little lower the next, but one thing has stayed consistent: home prices are still expected to keep rising.

What It Means for Your Next Move

Percentages are helpful, but you probably care more about what this could mean in actual dollars. So, let’s break that down too.

Let’s say you bought a $400,000 home in January. Based on the panel’s latest forecast, you could gain about $58,000 in equity over the next five years just from price growth.

That’s real wealth you could be building while others wait on the sidelines for a crash experts aren’t expecting. And if home prices continue to rise, waiting could mean paying more for the same home down the road.

Bottom Line

Whether you’re worried about a crash or hoping for one, the outlook is the same. Home prices are still expected to rise, not fall. Let’s talk about what that could mean for your local market and your plans.