You’ve probably seen a lot of headlines predicting a housing market crash lately. But those stories don’t tell the whole picture. Here’s what’s really going on with the market and what experts expect for home prices over the next five years. Spoiler: a crash isn’t in the forecast.

In some local markets, home prices are leveling off or even dropping a bit this year because more homes are coming on the market. That’s a normal response to rising inventory. But when you look at the bigger picture, things aren’t as drastic as the negative headlines make them seem. Here’s why.

More than 100 top housing market experts took part in Fannie Mae’s latest Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES). Together, they predict home prices will continue to rise over the next five years, but at a slower, more balanced pace compared to recent years. This steady and sustainable growth can help calm any worries you might have about what’s coming next (see graph below).

When you check out how different experts answered in the survey, their views basically split into three groups: the most optimistic, the most pessimistic, and the overall average outlook.

Here's what the breakdown looks like:

• Experts are saying we could see home prices rise by about 3.3% each year through 2029.

• The more optimistic experts think prices could climb closer to 5% a year.

• Even the more cautious experts are still expecting prices to grow by about 1.3% a year.

Do all the experts agree on the exact same number? Not at all. But here’s the important part: none of them are predicting a major national drop or a crash. Instead, they’re expecting home prices to grow at a steady, more manageable pace.

That’s better for both the market and you in the long run. In some places, prices might stay steady or even drop a little for now, especially where there are more homes available. Meanwhile, other areas could see prices rise more quickly than the national average because there aren’t enough homes to meet buyer demand. Overall, though, slower, steadier price growth is easing the sharp jumps we experienced during the recent market frenzy.

Even the most cautious experts agree that home prices are expected to go up over the next five years. This outlook is supported by a few key factors: foreclosures are low, lending standards remain solid, and many homeowners have nearly record-high equity. These conditions work together to keep the market stable and prevent a flood of forced sales that could push prices down. So, if you’re holding out for a big market crash before buying, you might be in for a long wait.

Bottom Line

If you’re unsure about what to do, now’s a good time to get clear on your plans. The market isn’t crashing; it’s expected to grow steadily and slowly over the long term. Just keep in mind that some areas may see ups and downs along the way.

Curious about how this impacts our neighborhood? National trends give a general idea, but what truly counts is what's going on right here in your zip code. Let’s have a quick chat so you can understand exactly what the local data means for you.