The fear of a recession is making headlines again. If you’re planning to buy or sell a home soon, you might be wondering if now is the right time to make a move.

A recent survey from John Burns Research and Consulting and Keeping Current Matters found that 68% of people are putting off buying or selling a home because they’re uncertain about the economy.

But the reason might surprise you. It’s not all about fear or hesitation. In fact, some buyers are pausing because they’re optimistic. According to Realtor.com:

““In 2025Q1, 3 in 10 (29.8% of) surveyed homebuyers said a recession would make them at least somewhat more likely to purchase a home . . . This reflects a common dynamic where some buyers see a downturn as an opportunity. If the economy enters a recession, the Federal Reserve may respond by lowering interest rates to stimulate activity, potentially putting downward pressure on mortgage rates and easing affordability concerns. As a result, buyers—especially those with limited down payments—might view a recession as a more favorable time to enter the market.”
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— Realtor.com

There’s some truth to the idea that a recession might lead to lower mortgage rates. When the economy slows down, mortgage rates tend to go down as well. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s a trend we often see. If you look at data from the last six recessions, mortgage rates dropped every time.

But here’s the thing those buyers might be overlooking. A lot of hopeful buyers are also assuming that home prices will go down. Yet, history actually paints a different picture.

Data from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) shows that home prices actually increased during four of the last six recessions.

A lot of folks assume that when a recession comes around, home prices will drop just like they did in 2008. But that was really a one-time event, not the usual pattern. Since then, prices haven’t fallen that sharply, mostly because there’s still a big shortage of homes available, even though more houses are starting to appear on the market.

Since prices usually follow their current trend, keep in mind that home prices are still steady or going up in most metro areas, just at a slower rate. So, a sharp drop isn’t very likely. As Robert Frick, Corporate Economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, points out:

““Hopes that an economic slowdown will depress housing prices are wishful thinking at this point . . .”
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— Robert Frick, Corporate Economist with Navy Federal Credit Union

Bottom Line

If you’ve been holding off on buying a home until a recession hits, it’s good to know what usually happens during one—and what probably won’t. Mortgage rates might drop, which is a plus. But don’t count on home prices falling significantly; that’s much less common.

Don’t hold out for a perfect market that might never arrive. If you're considering buying or selling, let’s chat about what the current economy means for you. Together, we can create a smart plan that works in your favor no matter what the headlines are saying.