If you’ve been keeping up with real estate news recently, you’ve likely noticed headlines saying home prices are staying flat. It seems pretty straightforward at first. But the truth is, it’s a bit more complicated than that.

Prices actually vary quite a bit depending on the area.

What the Data Really Shows

Prices have slowed down from the fast and unsustainable rise they experienced between 2020 and 2022, but how much they’ve shifted varies a lot depending on the area.

If you check out data from ResiClub and Zillow for the 50 biggest metro areas, the picture is pretty clear. The market is basically split in two. About half of these metros are still seeing home prices creep up, while the other half are experiencing a slight drop in prices (see graph below).

The main point is that "flat" doesn't mean prices are staying the same everywhere. The data really highlights how much price trends can differ depending on your location.

One major reason behind the gap is inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) at Harvard University breaks it down like this:

““ . . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight.”
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— Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University

When you combine all those different trends into one average, it might seem like things are staying the same. But that doesn’t tell the full story, and it’s not how most local markets actually feel right now. You deserve the real picture.

If you’re zeroing in on areas with price drops, keep in mind those are spots where home values climbed really fast a few years back. Over the past five years, prices nationally rose about 50%, and some markets saw even bigger jumps. So, even with a small dip in certain neighborhoods, most homeowners are still ahead in terms of their home's overall value. Plus, looking at today’s housing market basics, experts aren’t expecting a nationwide decline anytime soon.

What do you really need to know?

If You’re Buying...

Knowing what's going on in your neighborhood is important because it affects how fast you should act on an offer and how much room you'll have to negotiate when you do.

• In a market where prices keep climbing, waiting too long might end up costing you more later on.

• Since the market is cooling down a bit, you might have a better chance of negotiating things like repairs or help with closing costs to make the deal more attractive.

The bottom line is that understanding your local market trends gives you control over your decisions.

If You’re Selling...

It’s important to keep an eye on local trends so you can price your home right and have a good idea of how much room there might be for negotiation.

• With prices still going up, you might find you don’t have to make too many trade-offs to sell your home.

• If you’re in a market where prices are dropping, it’s really important to set the right price from the beginning and be open to negotiating.

The key thing for homeowners is to work with an agent who knows the local market well. If sellers want to price their homes correctly and avoid mistakes, getting that local insight is crucial. When homes are priced right, they’re definitely moving.

The Real Story Is Local

National averages give a good overview of general trends, which is useful background information. However, sometimes you need a more local perspective because what’s going on in your own neighborhood might be quite different. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

““While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented…This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway.”
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— Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com

The best move, whether you're buying or selling, is to rely on a local agent who really knows your market inside and out.

They’ve got the data and know-how to explain if home prices in your neighborhood are staying steady, rising, or starting to dip – and what that means for your next move.

Bottom Line

Headlines saying home prices are flat might catch your eye, but they don’t tell the whole story.

Has someone explained to you what's really going on with prices in the market right now? If you want the full picture and an honest update on where things stand, let’s connect.