If you’ve come across headlines or social media posts predicting a housing crash, you might be concerned that home values are going to drop. The reality is much simpler than the hype suggests.

The data isn’t showing signs of a crash. Instead, it suggests steady, ongoing growth.

Prices will differ depending on the local area. In some places, home values will go up more than in others, while a few might experience slight, temporary drops. Overall, though, the national trend shows home prices are likely to increase over the next five years, not decline.

The Real Story Is in the Expert Forecasts

Each quarter, more than 100 top housing market experts share their predictions about home prices in Fannie Mae’s Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES). In the latest report, these experts generally agree that home prices are expected to keep rising across the country through at least 2029 (see graph below).

Here’s how to understand this chart: every bar represents growth, never a decline. The only difference is how fast the value is expected to rise each year.

To really put this into perspective, let’s check out another way of looking at where prices stand now and where they’re headed. This time, the expert forecasts are split into three groups: the overall average, the most optimistic predictions, and the most pessimistic ones (see chart below):

Even the most cautious experts agree that home prices are expected to go up by nearly 5% over the next few years.

• Overall, experts think home prices will climb about 15% between now and the end of 2029.

• The more optimistic ones say it could be closer to a 26% jump.

• Even the cautious forecasts still show prices rising around 5% over that time.

What stands out the most is that none of the groups analyzing the market are predicting a crash or even a drop in the next five years.

How This Compares to “Normal” for the Market

Let’s take another look at the first graph. It shows that prices are expected to go up by about 2 to 3.5 percent each year for the next five years. To put that in perspective, the average annual price growth over the past 25 years has been a bit higher—around 4 to 5 percent.

It’s a bit below the historical average, but it’s a lot more sustainable and normal compared to what we saw in 2020, 2021, and 2022.

Back then, prices went up really quickly because there was hardly any supply and a huge demand. In some areas, prices even jumped by 15-20%.

It might seem like prices are leveling off after those big jumps during the pandemic, but what’s actually going on is that the market is starting to balance out again.

Why Prices Aren’t Expected To Crash

There's a lot of talk right now about home prices because they've been rising so quickly, and people often say, "what goes up must come down." But if you look at the history, that's not really the case. Home prices tend to go up over time.

The main reason we won’t see a repeat of 2008 is pretty straightforward: it all comes down to supply and demand.

Even though it’s been tougher for some folks to buy a home in recent years due to affordability issues, there still aren’t enough houses available for everyone who wants one. This ongoing shortage is pushing prices up across the country.

Experts everywhere agree: Rephrase it in a conversational  

 That’s why experts across the board can confidently agree: we’re not headed for a price collapse, but for steady, long-term appreciation.

If the economy has you feeling uneasy, keep this in mind: over the last 50 years, the market has faced a lot of economic ups and downs. But one constant is that the housing market always bounces back. Right now, we’re actually moving through that turnaround and heading into a recovery phase.

 Bottom Line

If you’ve been holding off on buying or selling because you’re worried about a market crash, now’s the time to focus on the actual data instead of just the headlines.

The real question isn’t whether home prices will go up, but by how much they’ll increase.

Let’s touch base so you can stay updated on what’s going on in our local market and understand how these forecasts might impact your next step.